Of Opinion Polls and Exit Polls

13 May. Opinion and Exit Polls have been strange fellows in Indian media scenario. Whereas, the American media has often got it right their prediction, Indian media has always struggled to understand the electoral behaviour of it electorate. Hence, not once has it come closer to predicting the outcomes of any election.

This time, also, the trend seems to be on the expected lines. Just before the General Elections started in April 2014, the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh (Telengana and Seemandhra), had elections to its local bodies like Corporations and Municipalities. The Supreme Court of India blocked the announcement of the results, till after the General Elections got over on 12 May 2014. 

Now that the elections to the Indian Parliament are over, the Indian media houses started with the Exit Polls, predicting a huge victory for the Congress and Jagan’s YSRC. And now, the actual results are out: The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has done exceedingly well, beating Jagan’s YSRC and TRS black and blue! Wither Exit Polls!?

Just imagine, what will can happen to the Exit polls vis-a-vis the actual results of the Lok Sabha polls, when they are declared on 16 May 2014?  Most media houses have given a clear edge to Modi-led NDA and disaster for cong-led UPA.


Will it happen that way or will the Indian electorate defy the bought-media? Chance of such defiance are very high, in favour of Indian poor voters!



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